http://www.cnbc.com/id/37324540
這不僅僅是你的股票投資組合,拍了由歐洲的主權債務危機,美國經濟可能也有點擦傷。
高盛經濟學家表示,影響金融市場的破壞有可能已經淘汰了美國的0.25個百分點的增長,那就是如果損害財務狀況現在就停止了和歐洲的進口需求放緩只是略有下降。
這一估計數還考慮到了積極影響,包括從較低的石油價格和債券收益率下降,他們在報告中稱。
但是,如果有是一個重要的金融條件緊縮和信貸緊縮得到一個大的方式,有風險,經濟可能重新陷入衰退,根據高盛的經濟學家。
現在,他們都堅持用自己以前的預測,本地生產總值增長將放緩至低於趨勢在今年下半年之前,在2011年回升。
JP摩根經濟學家也在尋找他們預測本地生產總值百分之四的增長,第二和第三季度,一對眼睛降級,這取決於市場如何表現。
經濟學家們擔心緊縮同業拆借市場和其他信貸息差擴闊,以及對家庭財富的損失,由於股票市場的損失。
It wasn't just your stock portfolio that got banged up by Europe's sovereign debt crisis—the U.S. economy may also be a little bruised.
Goldman Sachs economists said the impact of the havoc in financial markets has probably already knocked 0.25 percent off of U.S. growth, and that is if the damage to financial conditions were to stop now and European import demand were to slow just slightly.
That estimate also takes into account the positive impacts from lower oil prices and lower bond yields, they said in a note.
However, if there were to be a significant tightening of financial conditions and credit availability gets tighter in a big way, there is risk the economy could fall back into recession, according to the Goldman economists.
For now, they are sticking with their previous forecast that GDP growth would slow to below trend in the second half, before picking up in 2011.
J.P. Morgan economists are also looking at their forecast for 4 percent GDP growth in the second and third quarter, with an eye toward downgrade, depending on how markets behave.
Economists have been worried about tightening in interbank lending markets and widening of other credit spreads, as well as the loss of household wealth due to equity market losses.
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